Development of Multipolar world order
Nearly after thirty years of soviet breakdown, the competition for being a great-power yet hit the geopolitical surface. The ‘war on terror’ narrative emerged after the 09/11 incident is ended up with failure upon withdrawing U.S. forces from Afghanistan two decades later. Spending six trillion U.S. dollars and sacrificing hundreds of thousands of lives have taken the U.S. hegemony nowhere; instead, it sliced its military capabilities in response to the budgetary pressures due to the 2008 financial crisis and the political dysfunction in Washington. In the meantime, Russia’s real GDP has doubled since 1998, and its allocation to the defense is nearly quadrupled. The Chinese GDP increased a dozen in the last twenty years also its defense budget increased tenfold; these drastic geopolitical dynamics set to the new multipolar world order from the American unipolarity.
Trilateral Trade-War
Chinese President Xi Jinping proposed building a land-based “Silk Road Economic Belt,” extending from China to Central and South Asia, the Middle East, and Europe, and a sea-based “21st Century Maritime Silk Road,” connecting China to Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe via major sea lanes have set the global business trade volume of seven trillion USD by 2040. Interestingly, most of the European participants of Xi’s ancient silk route dream are former Soviet satellite states that turned towards democracy, the rule of law, and integration into the global economy following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Most of these states joined the E.U. and NATO when they sought protection from Russian influence and access to more robust Western markets, particularly after four decades of poor social and economic conditions. Today, these states still face high unemployment and slow economic growth and, as such, are more likely to welcome the BRI as an opportunity to achieve sustained growth.
Understanding the economic influence of China, Trump increased the import traffic on Chinese goods, which triggered the trade war between these two states in 2018; under Biden, Washington has repeatedly singled out Russia and China as the biggest threats to the rules-based international order. At the same time, Relations between Moscow and Beijing are at an “unprecedentedly high level”. The bilateral trade between these Asian powers crossed over half a trillion U.S. dollars. Though many geopolitical theorists claim that the Russia-China relationship is ‘Unbreakable’, the question is how far this tie-up would last? Neither Washington nor Moscow are blissful on the Chinese shadow on their sphere of influence, as the heartland of central Eurasia is a pivot for the superpowers. The recent development on the Russia-Ukraine stand-off is just the tip of the iceberg for the status-co of this geopolitical competition.
Tamil’s Land in Geo-Political Competition
Expanding strategic and economic influence over the Indian ocean pivotal countries are also inevitable to these triangular superpowers. India and Srilanka are seen as the pressure valves in the Indian Ocean to balance the stability in the region; however, the “Tamils Land” of these Indian ocean states became a sphere of influence for this trilateral trade war. Therefore, plenty of strategic, economic, and maritime deals have been oriented towards Tamil Nadu and Tamil Eelam for the last couple of years.
Russian Influence
Putin’s December 2021 visit to India signed for bilateral trade worth 30 Billion USD, including the project establishing Vladivostok-Chennai Maritime Corridor (VCMC) full-fledged sea route of approximately 5,600 nautical miles between Russia’s eastern port city, Vladivostok and Chennai on the east Indian seaboard. A gateway for Russia into the Indo-Pacific and an alternate energy source for India, rather than relying on the volatile Middle East. This shipping link would enable to transfer of cargo between Chennai and Vladivostok in 24 days compared to over 40 days currently taken to transport goods from India to Far East Russia via Europe. Passing through the Sea of Japan, South China Sea and Strait of Malacca, the maritime corridor aims to counterbalance China’s growing influence in Southeast Asia by posing grave security and economic challenges to their Maritime Silk Road. Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IOC) signed with Russia’s Rosneft to import two million tons of oil to India. Opening a new VCMC sea route will likely help refine the Russian crude oil in IOC refineries located in Chennai. Besides, India’s nuclear power plants with Russia’s collaboration also functions in Kudankulam on the sea coast in Tamil Nadu’s Tirunelveli district.
Washington and Beijing’s Intervention
As the world is shifting to renewable energy, developing solar and electric vehicle technology and related materials is significant for proving to be a superpower. China is pioneering in this technology, and the world 70% of solar panels and their materials are exported from China.
India has signed with America’s Largest Solar Manufacturer First Solar company for the project worth $684 Million for Solar Panel Manufacturing Plant in Tamil Nadu. The U.S. Development bank DFC has already approved the funding worth $500 million to build this solar-panel factory. DFC Says establishing this project is vital for Quad Ally and weakens China’s dominance of the solar industry’s supply chain.
At the same time, The Chinese company contract worth U.S. $12 million to set up hybrid wind and solar energy projects on the Tamils inhabited islands of Delft, Nainativu and Analativu in the Palk Strait of Jaffna peninsula 45 km from Rameswaram in Tamil Nadu were suspended due to the meddling of Indian counterpart. However, the Sri Lankan Cabinet-appointed Management Committee on Investments (CAMCI) approved Indian conglomerate Adani Group to establish a 1GW wind power project in the Tamils dominated area of northern Sri Lanka, worth $1bn.
So, the Chinese counterpart needs to engage with the Tamils of Srilanka to counterbalance the U.S. and Russia’s development around Tamils land and water. Therefore, the Chinese envoy visit to the Tamils homeland of the Jaffna peninsula created tremors in Delhi and Washington.
Now it’s time for Tamils to Demand
Both India and Srilanka plays Tamil cards for their Geopolitical mileage; however, both India’s Hindutva and Lanka’s Sinhala autocracies deprived Tamil’s economic, sovereign rights and cultural ambitions. After 70 years of Independent India, the voice of ethnic nationalism is being raised across the states of the Indian union; also, the current regime of Tamil Nadu is keeping demand for economic autonomy from the Indian Union. Even the Indian National Congress party leader Rahul Gandhi mentioned that Indian Hindutuva autocratic forces can’t rule Tamils ever. At the same time, Tamils of Lanka are seeking self-determination and justice for genocide committed by S.L. Army in 2009. The emerging trigonal trade war created the platform for Tamils to negotiate their demand with the global powers. It is up to the people and political leaders of Tamil Nadu and Tamil Eelam to leverage this opportunity.
